Decyzje

Can conjugate prior probability explain the illusion of control?

Czupryna, Marcin Kubińska, Elżbieta Łukasz Markiewicz

Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Krakowie | Akademia Leona Koźmińskiego

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Abstract

In this paper, we consider the illusion of control by using Bayesian updating as the rationality model. Our paper contributes twofold. First, we empirically verify that the illusion of control may have two concurrent sources, “emotional” and “rational”. The fi rst one produces biased Bayesian processing due to emotional engagement and the second one yields biases due to prior assumptions on the level of control. Second, we propose a method for identifying these two sources. Moreover we verifi ed two hypotheses H1: The emotional factor causes overestimation of the actual level of control. and H2: The rational factor is responsible for the reverse relationship between observed levels of the illusion of control in three separate situations, when subjects have significant control, moderate or no control. Only the hypothesis H2 received partial empirical support.

Metadata

Journal Decyzje 
Issue 29 
Issue date 2018 
Type Article 
Language en
Pagination 87-114
DOI 10.7206/DEC.1733-0092.104
ISSN 1733-0092
eISSN 2391-761X