Publikacja:

Don’t fight the tape! Technical Analysis Momentum and Contrarian Signals as Common Cognitive Biases

Data

2020
Artykuł
Przeszukaj czasopismo Uproszczony widok Pełne metadane Statystyki
 
cris.legacyid5731
cris.virtual.journalance#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
cris.virtualsource.journalancedc92c553-0411-4522-97d5-b7ef33169392
dc.abstract.plPurpose: Stock market participants use technical analysis to seek trends in stock price charts despite its doubtful efficiency. We tested whether technical analysis signals represent typical and common cognitive biases associated with the continuation or reversal of the trend. Methodology: We compared investors’ opinions about the predictive power of technical analysis signals grouped into five conditions: real technical analysis signals associated with trend continuation (real momentum signals) or trend reversal (real contrarian signals), fake momentum or fake contrarian signals, and fluctuation signals. Findings: Investors assigned larger predictive power to real and fake signals associated with trend continuation than to signals associated with trend reversal. Fake signals, which represented cognitive biases, elicited similar predictions about trend continuation or reversal to real technical analysis signals. Originality: Market players assess momentum signals to have greater predictive power than contrarian signals and neutral signals to have the least predictive power. These results are independent of whether technical analysis signals were well-known to investors or made up by experimenters. The hardwired propensity of our brains to detect patterns combined with the non-natural environment of the stock market creates the illusion of expertise that is not easy to dispel.
dc.contributor.affiliationWarsaw University of Life Sciences
dc.contributor.affiliationSWPS University of Social Sciences and Humanities
dc.contributor.affiliationKozminski University
dc.contributor.affiliationKozminski University
dc.contributor.authorPiotr Zielonka
dc.contributor.authorWojciech Białaszek
dc.contributor.authorPaweł Biedrzycki
dc.contributor.authorBartłomiej Dzik
dc.contributor.orcid#PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE#
dc.contributor.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4672-4376
dc.date.accessioned2025-07-25T16:02:03Z
dc.date.available2025-07-25T16:02:03Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.date.published06/2020
dc.description.issue2
dc.description.physical98-110
dc.description.volume28
dc.identifier.doi10.7206/cemj.2658-0845.24
dc.identifier.issn2658-0845
dc.identifier.urihttps://repozytorium.kozminski.edu.pl/handle/item/1648
dc.languageen
dc.relation.ispartofCentral European Management Journal
dc.relation.pages98-110
dc.rightsCC-BY-4.0
dc.subjecttechnical analysis
dc.subjectpattern recognition
dc.subjectcognitive biases
dc.subjectmomentum
dc.subjectcontrarian
dc.subtypeOriginal
dc.title

Don’t fight the tape! Technical Analysis Momentum and Contrarian Signals as Common Cognitive Biases

dc.typeArticle
dspace.entity.typePublication