The Electoral System and Election Results: The Case of the Elections to the Sejm of the Republic of Poland

Abstract

The article examines the impact of nine counterfactual modifications to the Polish elector-al system on the results of the Sejm elections held on October 15, 2023. Scenarios analyzed include various methods of demographic seat adjustments, redistribution of overseas votes, changes to proportionality methods (D’Hondt vs. Sainte-Laguë), and changing the number of electoral districts. The issue of how deeper changes to the system may affect the strategic behavior of parties and voters is also analyzed. Results indicate that while each modification slightly alters seat distribution among parties, most changes do not significantly affect the overall balance of power in the Sejm.